Economy / Markets
Weekly Economy: Three central banks, one oil shock — ECB, Fed and BoJ are all tightening into a Hormuz premium
The week of 7 September frames the most synchronised monetary tightening cycle of 2026. The ECB's 9 September meeting is priced at 100% for a 25-basis-point hike to 2.75%, with futures implying a 75% chance of a follow-up to 3.0% by December. The 162,000 August payrolls print pushed Fed September hike odds to 58.4% and the 2-year Treasury yield to 4.377%, its highest since January 2025. The Bank of Japan is now seen at 75% probability of a quarter-point hike on 18 September. The common driver is energy: Brent crude is near USD 96.80 after US strikes on three Iranian tankers.
Sources
ECB Watch ToolReuters via LSE — Global Markets AsiaFree Malaysia Today — Wall Street ends lower