Economy / Markets
Lagarde to use updated staff projections to frame ECB hike as 'insurance' against energy shock
Christine Lagarde will lean on the European Central Bank's updated staff macroeconomic projections when she speaks after Thursday's rate decision to frame the expected 25 basis point hike as insurance against the Iran-driven energy shock rather than the start of a sustained tightening cycle. Markets are watching whether the projections push 2026 inflation above 3% and whether the Governing Council's wording keeps 'meeting-by-meeting' language, with both German two-year and ten-year yields as the tell for any broader repricing.