Economy / Markets
Fed Sept 16 hike odds firm near 50% as Warsh's Jackson Hole echoes stick
Prediction markets and CME fed funds futures continue to price a near-coin-flip chance of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve hike at the September 15-16 meeting, with Kalshi at 50.0% and CME implied at 57.9% on the latest cross-venue capture. The shift from a 26% Kalshi print two weeks ago traces to Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole emphasis on prices, a 3.7% July PCE print and a 9-3 July hold with three dissents. The implied path points to two hikes by year-end as the base case, with a 39% chance the policy rate ends December a half-point above today's range.