Economy / Markets
ECB all but certain to lift the deposit rate to 2.75% on Thursday; futures imply 75% odds of a follow-up hike to 3.0% by December
ECB Watch Tool prices a 100% probability of a 25-basis-point ECB hike to a 2.75% deposit rate on September 9, with futures implying a 75% chance of another move to 3.0% by year-end. A Reuters poll of economists published 3 September found 91% expect the deposit rate to end 2026 at 2.50% and 78% see it there through mid-2027, suggesting the September move may be the final hike of the cycle. JPMorgan's Bruce Kasman said central banks are now "on the move" and flagged a 75% probability the Bank of Japan will raise rates a quarter point at its September 18 meeting.
Sources
ECB Watch ToolReuters — ECB to raise rates a second time in September, but then done